4.0 Case Study 1 » 4.4 Step 3: Forecasting the Marine Situation » 4.4.8 Step 3 Summary
After examining the model forecasts and output for various parameters, including MSLP, significant wave height, EFI, and wave characteristics for four Moroccan coastal points, we can describe the situation as follows:
- By moving northeasterly, the low pressure has led to a wide zone of strong northwesterly winds blowing on a long fetch for at least 24 hours. This will form and push high swells straight towards the Moroccan coasts.
- The WW111 and WAM models both show high values of significant wave height and high period propagating towards the Moroccan coasts. These powerful waves will be dangerous for human safety and lead to property loss along the coast and at sea.
- The waves’ characteristics forecasted for the four coastal points show that the significant wave height will increase rapidly from 3 m up to 6 m during the night of 6 to 7 January
- The ECMWF extreme forecast index shows a significant magnitude of about 0.8 to 1 on the north and central Atlantic Moroccan coast
Given the unusual situation and exceptional values, forecasters must issue a high level of warning to prevent coastal hazards as quickly as possible.