Now we’re at the final stage where we need to evaluate whether the GFS model is suitable to be used for the forecast. The table shows that although the model is underestimating the MSLP slightly, the wind speed and direction are accurate. All of this data is valid for the Polarstern’s location at 53.1°S and 12.6°E.
Parameter |
GFS |
Polarstern |
ASCAT |
Lat/lon |
53.1°S/12.6°E |
53.1°S/12.6°E |
53.1°S/12.6°E |
Wind speed |
10-15kt |
12kt |
not covered by satellite pass |
Wind direction |
NW |
260° |
not covered by satellite pass |
MSLP |
994 hPa |
998.5 hPa |
not covered by satellite pass |
In terms placing the cold front, we can use the GFS wind plot showing the cold front for evaluation. It appears that the model is placing the cold front farther to the east than where the western boundary of the cloud band on the IR 10.8 µm image is depicting it. Earlier, we noted the possible reasons for this discrepancy.
Comparing the ASCAT and model winds and model MSLP in the tabs, it appears that the model is placing the cold front accurately. For these reasons, we can be reasonably confident in using the GFS model to forecast the likely locations, movement, weather, and marine parameters associated with the cold front for the upcoming 24-hour period.