It’s 06 UTC on 23 November. In a moment, we will forecast the position of the cold front, along with surface winds and marine meteorological parameters for 24 November at 06 UTC in the area of the ship’s projected location.
But before we do that, let’s look at the real-time weather situation using the current SYNOP report and a photograph from the ship. They will help us evaluate if the NWP model is capturing current conditions well, in which case we can have confidence in using its forecast.
Here is the SYNOP report for 12 UTC on 23 November:
Synop FM13 SMVX01 EDZW 231200 DBLK 23121 99524 30130 41194 80212 10007 20007 49950 57034 76972 877// 22282 04001 20503 329// 41208; |
The present weather type (code 76972) is reported as being rain or drizzle and snow (moderate or heavy). Although the SYNOP code gives low cloud type 7 (fractostratus), the photograph from the ship shows a cloud base near and on the surface of the ocean and fairly calm sea conditions.
The observed wind direction at the vessel is NNE at 12kt. The wind waves have a 5-second period at 1.5 m height. The sea swell is a WNW swell at a 12-second period, with a height of 4 m.
Given the observed weather conditions, it appears that the Polarstern may be in the area of a warm front, possibly already in the warm sector of the approaching storm system.